A comprehensive look at the dramatic political shifts in New Jersey, focusing on key towns and their implications for 2025 and beyond. From surprising coalition changes to the impact on local communities, this analysis explores the state's evolving political landscape and the questions it raises for the future of American politics.
New Jersey's 2024 presidential election results revealed some of the nation's most significant coalition shifts. These shifts are now setting the stage for a fiercely contested governor's race this year, and raising broader questions about the direction of communities like these in future elections.
One notable surprise was President Donald Trump's 2024 surge among nonwhite voters in the New York City metro area. However, the long-term sustainability of this coalition remains a question. An analysis of municipal-level election results in New Jersey, combined with U.S. Census Bureau data, provides a detailed demographic and geographic snapshot of where Democrats and Republicans have been growing their support fastest in recent elections.
Since 2012, when Trump was not on the ballot, support for Trump has surged in densely populated, heavily nonwhite, formerly industrial cities like Paterson, Perth Amboy, and Passaic in the New York City metro area. This growth has been particularly dramatic in 2024.
In contrast, Democratic candidates have found growing strength in New Jersey's shore towns, affluent suburbs populated by college-educated professionals, and places popular with retirees. These communities will become crucial laboratories for testing whether this 12-year political realignment can outlast Trump.
However, the picture is far from clear, and different political characters often encourage different political results. For example, Republican Jack Ciattarelli's previous bid for New Jersey governor in 2021 produced a tight race, but with a coalition that looked quite different from the one that emerged for Trump in 2024.
The biggest question heading into future elections is whether these shifts represent a durable transformation of state (and national) politics or merely a Trump-specific phenomenon. These communities provide a testing ground for the answer.
The biggest shifts toward Democrats have been seen in:
- Mantoloking, a nearly all-residential beach town with a high percentage of remote workers and a high mean household income.
- Short Hills, a wealthy and highly educated community with a large Asian population and a high percentage of advanced degrees.
- Frenchtown, a quaint river town with a high concentration of arts and design professionals and a growing college-educated population.
The biggest shifts toward Republicans have been seen in:
* A largely industrial neighborhood with a high Latino population and a growing distribution-based industry.
* East Newark, a Hispanic/Latino-majority area with a large Peruvian population and a high percentage of non-citizen residents.
* Passaic, a high-immigrant, working-class town with a large Orthodox Jewish population and a high percentage of residents who don't graduate high school.
These shifts have significant implications for the future of New Jersey and American politics, and they will be closely watched in the coming years.
